MAJOR CONTRARIAN SELL SIGNAL: Investors Are More Bullish Than In 99% Of All Periods Since 2002
BofA's proprietary
measure of investor sentiment is clocking in at extreme levels.
According to the firm's
Bull & Bear Index, which tracks sentiment using indicators like hedge fund
market exposure, fund flows, long-only investor positioning and so forth,
investors are more bullish than they were in 99% of periods since 2002.
The current B&B
reading is 9.6 (on a scale of 0 for max bearish and 10 for max bullish). It suggests
investor sentiment is currently more bullish than 99% of all readings since
2002. Extreme bullishness is characterized by robust inflows to EM equity
funds, overbought high-yield credit markets relative to treasuries and
aggressive hedge fund positions for a weaker yen and stronger oil prices.
What's even worse. This extreme surge in bullishness comes even as there's been a breakdown of late in the economic data, as measured by the BofA/ML Economic Surprise Index.
Thus bulls should have
reason to worry. Everyone is bullish, and lately he data isn't holding up so
hot, relative to expectations.
簡單翻譯一下
標題是逆向思考的投資人賣出訊號
圖2是美國銀行的牛熊指數，目前該指數數值為9.6表示目前市場的氣氛極度樂觀
圖3是把經濟驚奇指數與牛熊指數放在一起對照
目前兩個指數是出現背離狀況，也就是說經濟沒有特別強勁的成長，投資人卻過度樂觀
因此目前的牛市是令人擔心，另類指標給各位參考
轉載原址連結:http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-were-in-the-1-percent-of-investor-bullishness-2013-2
沒有留言:
張貼留言